The relations between India and Pakistan have been bogged down over the
Kashmir issue since the division of British India in
1947.Neither diplomatic negotiations nor three wars i.e 1947-48 ,
1965 and 1999 have brought the two countries closer to any agreement.
After the defeat of Pakistan in 1971 war which was not triggered
by Kashmir but reluctance of West Pakistanis to accept a government
lead by East Pakistanis (Bengalis).The war resulted in disembarkation
of Pakistan , emergence of independent Bangla Desh and surrender of about 95,000
Pakistani army and paramilitary personal to Indian Army in a
12 days war. For about two decades after the humiliating defeat Pakistanis
licked their wounds and offered only lip service to Kashmir issue . After
realizing the superiority of Indian Armed Forces in conventional
warfare the Pakistanis secretly initiated by fair
and fowl means work on manufacture of nuclear weapons with substantial help from
the Republic of China . In order to forestall any opposition from democratic
forces within the country to his autocratic rule General Zia Ul Haq
the 2 nd Military Dictator of Pakistan transformed the moderate Islamic
state of Pakistan into a fundamentalist one which encouraged
the Mullas to rule the roost and dominate it’s politics. To show
progress on Kashmir issue the so called unfinished agenda of the partition
of British India , General Zia planned the proxy war in the Indian
administrated state of Jammu & Kashmir which started immediately after his
death.
Pakistan is mainly interested in complete control of
three rivers namely Indus ,Jhelum and Chenab flowing through the state of
Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistanis have a fear that at some latter
stage India may not scrap the Indus Water treaty and divert the waters of
these rivers in full are part for its own use .Another factor that worries
Pakistan about is that its North Western part including
Islamabad is well within striking distance from western and south western
borders of Jammu and Kashmir .Whenever there was a war Pakistan
fought with courage of despair in Chamb sector to forestall any major
offensive by an Indian strike force into central Pakistan ,
Annexing the Muslim majority state of Jammu & Kashmir , in reality is of
lesser importance than fears of diversion of river waters and
a possible Indian attack.
Pakistan transformed the local uprising by Jammu & Kashmir Liberation
Front[ which was also initially sponsored by Pakistan ) as its
larges by involving Islamist terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e- Toiba
and Jaish-e-Mohamad replacing the former(JKLF) completely.. The
terrorist organizations lost popular support because of their
harassing and terrorizing the locals by extortions, killings
and at times rapping of the women folk. In due course of time the Indian
police and security forces substantially contained the
insurgency and Govt. of India also responded by holding three
elections in the state in 1996,2002 and 2008 which independent observers and
journalists reported as free and fair.
Immediately after the bus journey by then prime minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee
from Amritsar to Wagah border and Lahore declaration In 1999
Pakistan sent regular troops in the garb of locals into Kargil area across
the line of actual control and occupied remote but strategically
important positions with the intention of disrupting moment of traffic on
vital Srinagar Leh Highway and insulating Ladakh from the rest of
the country. At first the BJP led Indian Govt. down played the incident.
but soon afterwards to everybody’s surprise Indian Army vigorously
counter attacked uphill across the sub vertical hill slopes and dislodged
the Pakistani intruders . Moreover the International community including
United States condemned the Pakistani aggression and strongly supported
India. The Pakistanis were forced to withdraw by the vigorous
Indian counter attack and political pressure from US President Bill
Clinton.
In the recent past India’s economic growth ,diplomatic influence and
overall prestige have considerably increased The new international profile of
the country has added a different dimension to its on going confrontation with
Pakistan over the Kashmir issue. It is unlikely that the two countries despite
the repeated renewal of talks and peace process will reach a settlement in near
future..Twice (1999 and 2001-2) the two countries were about to resort to
use of nuclear weapons. India approximately administers about two thirds
of the original State of Jammu & Kashmir while Pakistan holds most of the
remainder. China grabbed the Aksai Chin plateau while India stuck to
the out dated theory of British imperialists that no country would be
interested in a bleak area like Aksai Chin. To appease China and for getting
their support for Kashmir and other issues, Pakistan ceded the area of
Raksam valley to the former in1963.
After the Pakistani sponsored blasts in on Diwali festival
at Delhi and subsequent attacks on Indian Parliament in December 2001 both
countries resumed talks but no tangible results were achieved except the
cease fire along the Line of actual control , bus services between
Srinagar and Muzafrabad and Punch (J&K) and Rawlakot(POK) and trade also
across the LOC. Relations between the two countries were hardly normal
when Pakistani sponsored militants of Jais-e-Mohamad struck Mumbai in 2008
taking the sea route and killed about 164 people including foreign nationals
and wounding about 300 in Taj Palace Hotel, Oberai Trident Hotel, Nariman
Bhawan and Chatarpati Shivaji terminus, Cama hospital and other
places . When questioned about it Pakistan at first flatly refused to take the
responsibility terrorist attack had originated from tits soil,
latter due to international pressure however admitted that it was carried out by
non state actors though India gave them enough evidence which proves
otherwise. .Pakistanis with one pretext or other has avoided / refused to stop
aiding the terrorist organizations and consider them as their allies against
India.
More ever Pakistan Government is under pressure from the fundamentalist
clergy , their allies in Parliament and its army to annex Kashmir by fair
and fowl means , accordingly Pakistani Government continues to aid the terrorist
organizations. But what the Pakistani authorities whosoever they are fail to
understand that India’s patience with Pakistani Sponsored
terrorism in Kashmir or elsewhere in India is nearly at an end . It
is now clear that that forbearance of the past on the part of Indian Government
may not survive another Pakistani sponsored state or non state terrorist
attack. To day the Indian army is well prepared to under take swift surgical and
decisive action by retaliating against targets of its own choosing in Pakistan.
Neither the Kashmir dispute nor the insurgency had any
significant effect on India’s rise to international prominence During 19
60s and 70s theorists of repute predicted that uncontrollable
increase in population ,slow economic progress , Naxalite/
Moist movements, tensions along religious, caste and
ethnic lines will result in India’s doom. But on the contrary
India has exhibited a remarkable recovery except for a brief period of from June
1975 to March 1977 it has managed the crises without abandoning the path
of democracy. India has achieved tremendous economic growth bid farewell
to its policy of non alignment and improved its relations with western
powers including United States. All these achievements have materialize in spite
of the naxal problems in Central and Eastern India, occasional
flares in North East and continued Pakistani sponsored terrorism in
Kashmir and other parts of the country. There is least chance of
India not being able to maintain its domestic stability and improve
its economic growth even if Kashmir issue remains unresolved. Kashmir issue may
not be immaterial to the peace and may remain a flash point for
another Indo Pakistani conflict but it is not going to block India’s progress
and its diplomatic relations with most nations of the world including a number
of Islamic countries. It has become fashionable for world
leaders to advise India that it should settle the Kashmir and other
issues with Pakistan as early as possible which is well said than
done. Scores of solutions have been suggested but hardly any one of
these is politically feasible. An accord should balance needs of Justice
and power for all residents of J&K state Muslims [both Sunni’s and
Shias], Kashmiri Pandits, Dogras,Sikhs and Buddhists .Even a plebiscite would
fail to address the needs of the states minorities Hardly any Shia,
Dogra,Kashmiri Pandit , Buddhist or Sikh would like to join a Sunni dominated
Independent State of Jammu and Kashmir. The sad and dismal plight of minorities
in Pakistan ,Iraq , Bahrin , Afghanistan etc need not be repeated here.
The ideal solution for Kashmir’s minorities would be to continue as part of
multi ethnic multi religious multi lingual secular State of India where
Muslim population exceeds that of Pakistan.. But that may not satisfy
Pakistanis who want to integrate the state as a whole with Pakistan
failing which they would prefer to see Kashmir as an independent Muslim
dominated Kashmir friendly/sympathetic to itself. But that will not
be acceptable not only to India but also China , the latter has made it
clear that it won’t tolerate an Independent Kashmir. India has
repeatedly made it clear that it will not agree to any territorial
adjustments in Kashmir .India is facing a number of secessionists movements and
is fully aware as to what effect an independent Kashmir
will have .China has also opposed Independent Kashmir for the same reason
as they are facing problems in Xinjiang and Tibet. Most of the ruling regimes of
Pakistan have been in the past as well as today unrepresentative
rather autocratic and dictatorial East Pakistan now Bangla Desh
seceded from Pakistan as its Bengali population was ill treated The
Baluchistan was and is being discriminated so are the Shias even in its
Punjab province. Pakistan the most loud mouthed champions of Muslims of
Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir state has exercised utter disregard
for democratic practices and institutions under its own
control in Jammu and Kashmir especially in the so called Northern
areas comprising Gilgit agency and Baltistan area since 1947.It is a
million dollar question how an independent Kashmir could function or
survive.
Pakistan has very frequently relied on the assistance of foreign powers
especially United States China and Islamic countries to boost its claim
for Kashmir and despite its persistent efforts , it is not closer to dislodging
India from Kashmir than it was in 1947-48 More specifically since the end
of cold war most of the nations have lost interest in Pakistan’s drum
beating about Kashmir As India’s trade expands its military might grows
the world will care even less. Clinton categorically stated in 1999
that “borders cannot be redrawn in blood .Pakistan cannot continue its policy
of limited cooperation with US against al Qaeda while sponsoring
terrorism against India. The principal terrorist organizations operating
in Kashmir neither command loyalty nor believe in democracy. No government in
Delhi will grant any concession without an end to terrorist violence
in Kashmir. Memories of Pakistan’s misdeeds against India in Kashmir and
elsewhere being overlooked by US are fresh in the minds of Indian policy makers
and still cast doubts on US friendship. The main cause of persistent
authoritarian rule in Pakistan is mainly due to constant support
financial or otherwise to autocratic regimes by the US in the
name of expediency which practically destroyed the democratic fabric in
the country and enabled the armed forces mainly the army to have an
effective veto even when civilian regimes were at the helm of affairs. The
economic defense and political disparities between India and
Pakistan are significant, the size of Indian middle class has been estimated to
be about 300 million and despite rising oil prices India has
registered its heigh GDP growth . Pakistan’s economy despite by substantial
expatriate remittances and US aid is much below that of India’s growth rate.
India’s robust democratic institutions despite some drawbacks stand in
marked contrast to that of Pakistan’s autocratic military rule even with
its civilian façade. Pakistan’s policy makers mainly its
military establishment have been keeping the pursuit of “a
thousand cuts against India “. But their strategy has failed as India’s
economic, military and political rise will sap its resolve or resources. The
country’s growing prosperity will enable it to withstand the cost of
sustaining and improving its defense equipment and training.
Finally Pakistan would have to move towards making the Line of control a
permanent international border while allowing contact between
communities across the divide failing which the confrontation
between the two countries is otherwise also likely to end up not by
war or negotiations but by Pakistan’s exhaustion.